The adoption of Agile: TALC vs. Hype Cycle

An interesting poll was posted at Scrumology asking us to indicate where we consider ‘Agile’ to be on the Hype Cycle. A little note…

logo-myfragilityThe presentation of my framework My.Fragility starts with a general introduction on ‘Agile’ before diving into Scrum and going beyond. This introduction ends with a maturity assessment of Agile using Geoffrey Moore’s Technology Adoption Life Cycle. The conclusion is that Agile has Entered the Bowling Alley (so has definitely Crossed the Chasm).

In 2008 I added a comparison with Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Application Development, which puts Agile in the Trough of Disillusionment and predicts a period of 5-10 years before mainstream adoption.

Agile on the Hype Cycle for Application Development 2007 (Gartner)

However, having studied and compared both models I am convinced that Agile is -at least- on its way to the Slope of Enlightenment:

Agile on the Hype Cycle vs. TALC

Other objections I have with Gartner are:

  • Agile is primarily the common denominator of a number of methods and is as such not one defined method. As a practitioner of Scrum, combining it with XP and going beyond with My.Fragility, I believe these methods to be certainly farther in adoption.
  • A complete Agile approach covers a number of practices and disciplines that Gartner separates (e.g. various testing levels). See my indications on the Hype Cycle.
  • My intuition and daily experience contradict the 5-10y expectation.

Challenge: from the TALC I expect Scrum to become the Agile Gorilla

One thought on “The adoption of Agile: TALC vs. Hype Cycle

  1. Greetings!
    Hope you are doing well, I need some research input for a study based on Offshore Agile software development.

    It would be very kind of you if I may be able to get your participations for this research study

    The research form could be access at

    http://spreadsheets.google.com/viewform?hl=en&formkey=dEQ1WEswNllmdjZjY0tlbDRPcW5yc0E6MA..

    Your feedback will help me to conclude, which type of the software development is best suitable for offshore and Agile process model, and what kind of developmental strategies a company should adopt in a particular situation, or for a specific project type, for successful development of the offshore software project by using Agile process model.

    I will appreciate your contribution and support.

    Thank you

    Regards
    Fareesa Malik

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